Assessment of Democratic Decline
Released Oct. 16, 2025 by The Steady State, a group of more than 340 US former senior national security professionals. “Our membership includes former officials from the Central Intelligence Agency, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Department of State, Department of Defense [sic] and Department of Homeland Security. Drawing on deep expertise across national security disciplines including intelligence, diplomacy, military affairs and law, we advocate for constitutional democracy, the rule of law and the preservation of America’s national security institutions.”–from footnote 1 to the paper, p. 1.
The paper starts out strong. You can’t accuse these officials of not knowing how to write. “It [the assessment] concludes–with moderate to high confidence–that the cumulative effect of multiple reinforcing dynamics is placing the nation on a trajectory toward competitive authoritarianism: a system in which elections, courts, and other democratic institutions persist in form but are systematically manipulated to entrench executive control.” That sentence ought to make the hair on the back of your neck stand on end. I ask the reader to keep in mind that this is not written from the p[oint of view of the radical left. These are centrist government officials who accept the basic paradigms of political liberalism (to be construed in its historic, Lockean, sense). “The analysis identifies five interrelated trends driving this process. Executive overreach is being consolidated through governance by decree [italics mine–DW] and weaponization of the state, combining sweeping executive orders and expansive emergency claims with politicized control of the civil service and preferential protection of allies. Erosion of judicial independence has advanced not only through partisan appointments, but through strategic reliance on the Supreme Court’s “shadow docket”, efforts to curtail judicial remedies and intimidate the legal profession, and selective compliance with court rulings. Legislative weakness and abdication have diminished Congress’s capacity to serve as a coequal branch as delegation, obstruction, and polarization undermine effective oversight…the undermining of public trust, knowledge, and civil society through attacks on the press, academia, watchdog institutions, and dissenting voices has weakened democratic culture and civic resilience. Together, these trends indicate a restructuring of the constitutional order around personal loyalty rather than adherence to law [italics mine–dw] ...absent organized resistance by institutions, civil society, and the public, the United States is likely to continue along a path of accelerating democratic erosion, risking further consolidation of executive dominance and a loss of credibility as a model of democracy abroad.”
The assessment presents a set of “key findings” including: 1) that democratic backsliding in the United States is accelerating; 2) that the Executive Branch is actively weaponizing state institutions to punish perceived opponents and shield allies; 3) that judicial independence is under sustained threat; 4) that legislative weakness is compounding the authoritarian trend; 5) that public trust in U.S. democratic institutions is declining; and 6) that the cumulative effect of these dynamics places the United States on a trajectory toward “competitive authoritarianism”.
Of particular note as regards point 1, the paper cites a “paramount concern”: “The Administration has attempted to criminalize dissent through new directives. Trump’s EO designating Antifa as a domestic terrorist organization and National Security Presidential Memorandum 7 treat broad categories of political belief as grounds for investigation and punishment, blurring the constitutional line between criminal conduct and constitutionally protected speech.”
Point 4, that legislative weakness is compounding the authoritarian trend, brings the problem to the doorstep of the body politic. Under the heading “Systemic electoral flaws”, The Steady State makes the claim that the US electoral system itself is “favoring political extremism and contributing to the autocratic trend. Features such as the winner-take-all system exaggerate one’s party electoral wins and dilute minority voting power, weakening competition between the major parties. These systemic distortions coupled with partisan manipulation of election rules, gerrymandering, intimidation of election officials, and weak guardrails against money and disinformation, collectively weaken electoral legitimacy while preserving the façade of democratic process.” Moreover, these systemic issues lead to “manufactured majorities”, where ruling parties manipulate electoral laws and processes to inflate their representation and weaken the power of legitimate opposition voices. Conclusion–“The U.S. electoral system increasingly tilts the playing field toward incumbents and partisan advantage. Structural biases such as winner-take-all rules and gerrymandering distort representation while restrictive voting laws, partisan control of election administration and intimidation of election officials weaken electoral integrity.”The paper goes on to document the undermining of the faith in public institutions, with such chilling conclusions as “By asserting that unfavorable outcomes are fraudulent by definition the Administration has laid the groundwork for both preemptive contestation of future results and punitive measures under the guise of ‘election security’. This not only undermines trust in election security but justifies restrictive voting measures that disproportionately affect political opponents.”
Point 6–The assault on public knowledge and civil society
The concluding statement of this section begins with “We judge that the Administration’s efforts to control information, suppress expertise, and constrain civil society constitute a parallel front in democratic backsliding–distinct from the delegitimization of institutions, yet reinforcing it. Rather than merely attacking existing institutions these actions seek to redefine what is knowable and who is permitted to speak with authority. Through political influence over academia, science, media, and non-governmental organizations, the Administration is eroding the independent sources of knowledge that enable democratic accountability.” I might add that this goes much further than the problem of “democratic accountability”. The very spirit of free inquiry in all areas of thought is at stake here.
So much for the Assessment as such. It convincingly identifies and describes this tendency for “democratic backsliding”, as defined through a process of comparison between the basic structures and procedures of the American experiment as they existed before 2016 and afterward. What escapes examination, however, is the issue of all the structural problems that existed before, all the way back to the inception of the Republic. My paper, included in this blog, called “Give Up the Struggle” examines this facet of the problem. These are the problems inherent within political liberalism itself, the much-vaunted “Rule of Law” and the problem of executive authority in general. As I demonstrated, The US was created with the proviso of a strong presidency, modeled on the prerogatives of the British Crown. And in many ways it went downhill from there. For example, what was Jefferson thinking when he promulgated the Insurrection Act? He had to stop Aaron Burr from bringing down the government, but the law has stayed on the books all that time. And of course the intensification of executive power that commenced with the Patriot Act of 2001 removed many of the bulwarks protecting the American body politic from erosion of the Bill of Rights. We cannot help but recall Hobbes’ chilling words on the problem: “Power, not truth, makes the Law.” Who has the power? How has its concentration evolved over these two centuries?
Everything points to the need of a fundamental restructuring. One could, for example, look to the work of Gaston Bachelard, who, in his seminal book The Formation of the Scientific Mind (1938) examines the psychology of utilitarianism, which of course functions as the guiding metaphilosophy of liberalism, exposing it as something which ultimately undercuts the quest for true knowledge. From such a standpoint, L’esprit Scientifique is in dire need of undergoing a thoroughgoing psychoanalytic treatment. This of course opens up fundamental questions of patriarchy and the nature of authoritarianism in general, necessitating a shift from the examination of social dynamics to individual ones. One must, following the psychoanalyst Otto Gross, commence with the examination of the power structures within the individual with emphasis on expunging these authoritarian structures which infiltrate into the depths of every man’s being.